COLUMBUS, BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — ACT Research and FTR are both reporting Class 8 orders are still declining.
While ACT has the net orders for February at 18,300, FTR is reporting 17,000.
Strong End for 2024
“After the strong end to 2024, the past two months have largely been defined by trade and economic policy uncertainty, as the new administration has thrown a wrench into business planning,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Whether the slowdown in orders is a result of moderating economic activity or a response to the newfound uncertainty remains an open question. In February, Class 8 orders dropped 34% y/y to 18,300 units. Seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders fell 28% from January to 16,700 units (198k SAAR), the lowest SA reading in almost two years.”
Medium Duty
“MD Classes 5-7 orders continued their slowly deflating trajectory into still historically elevated (if less so) truck and bus backlogs, Vieth said. “ACT’s preliminary look at February NA Classes 5-7 orders puts the month’s volume at 17,100 orders, down 11% y/y.”
FTR Reports Even Lower Numbers
According to FTR, North American Class 8 net orders in February totaled 17,000 units, down 31% month-over-month (m/m) and 38% year-over-year (y/y). This figure was well below seasonal expectations, falling notably short of the seven-year February average of 26,912 net orders. With continuous threats of significant tariffs among the North American trading partners and increasing uncertainty for market participants, business investment directed towards Class 8 trucks/tractors appears to have slowed significantly. For the first time since the 2025 order season began, cumulative net orders from September 2024 through February 2025 are down y/y, declining 3%. Class 8 orders have totaled 266,900 units over the last 12 months.
Tariff Troubles
“Significant U.S. tariffs could substantially increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks/tractors and related components,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, FTR. “Approximately 45% of all Class 8 trucks built for the U.S. and Canadian markets will be subject to the 25% U.S. tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico and planned Canadian counter tariffs. About 40% of U.S. Class 8 trucks are produced in Mexico, and roughly 65% of Canada’s Class 8 trucks are assembled in the U.S. Even if those tariffs went away, others affecting costs include those on steel and aluminum, goods imported from China, and perhaps others coming down the pike.”
According to FTR, OEMs across the board experienced a significant decline in order activity for February. The on-highway market accounted for the bulk of the m/m declines, although vocational orders were also down notably m/m.
“Combined with upcoming U.S. EPA 2027 NOx regulations, tariffs may significantly disrupt fleet replacement cycles – either accelerating investments to avoid future price hikes or delaying purchases amid growing uncertainty,” Moyer said. “Based on February orders, the latter approach apparently is the dominant path so far. OEMs and suppliers may consider shifting production to manage tariff exposure. However, these strategic changes remain costly, complex, and time-intensive, further complicating industry planning.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
