The cost of diesel fuel remained a major profitability factor in May, as small trucking businesses saw increased revenues largely consumed by higher fuel prices. The rate of inflation, largely pushed by fuel costs, also rose in May, increasing non-fuel costs for trucking businesses.
While the overall outlook is positive, headwinds remain.
The DAT Trendlines report was largely positive. May dry van spot rates rose 12.3% over April rates and were 17.3% higher than May 2025 rates. During the same period, all segment truck postings declined by 15.8% from April and by 22.7% from May 2025.
Since better paying loads are available, fewer owners are posting trucks looking for loads.
Dry Van
For dry van, the load to truck ratio improved 48.4% for the month and by 92% year over year. Trendlines reported the average per-mile rate for dry van jumped to $2.89 in May vs. $2.67 for April, and it has continued to rise, topping $3 per mile in June.
Flatbed
The results were similar in the flatbed segment with spot rates leaping by 22.3% in May and ending the month 21.4% higher than May 2025 rates. The load to truck ratio declined by 1.0% but was 189% higher than May 2025, showing much greater availability of loads. According to Trendlines, the national average spot rate per mile for flatbed was $3.66 in May, up from April’s $3.44.
Refrigerated
In the refrigerated segment, rates were down slightly, possibly more due to seasonal factors. The national average rate per mile fell 2.2% from April and was 4.8% lower than May 2025.
Changes in immigration policy enforcement have resulted in escalating labor costs for some growers while tariffs and changes in trade dynamics have impacted crop markets, making an “apples to apples” comparison of freight rates more challenging.
Let’s not forget the diesel factor.
While average spot rates were rising in May, the U.S. average price per gallon for diesel fuel held steady for most of the month, reaching $5.64 in the first two weeks of the month before easing by a few cents by month’s end. The price continued to fall in June as the U.S. and Iran reached tentative agreement to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the peace deal, and fuel prices, remain unstable.
Volume indices reflect shrinking capacity.
On the contract freight side, the American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported a volume decline of 2% for May following a 0.9% drop in April. The ATA For-Hire Trucking Index was still higher than May 2025, but this year’s results help solidify the market trend towards shrinking capacity. Freight levels aren’t increasing substantially, if at all, but with fewer trucks available to haul what’s available, rates continue to increase.
“Despite the recent decreases, the index increased from year earlier levels for the sixth straight month, which is pretty good considering the bulk of freight drivers, like manufacturing and construction, remain lackluster,” explained Bob Costello, ATA’s chief economist.
The ATA index rose 4.7% during the first quarter of 2026, and the declines in April and May have not erased the earlier increases.
The ATA Index is calculated using data submitted by its member carriers and primarily represents large and medium sized carriers hauling mostly contract freight.
The ACT Research For-Hire Trucking Index for May was more positive, indicating a 0.8% increase in its Volume Index for May on a seasonally-adjusted basis to a five-and-a-half year high. The ACT release cited tightening capacity and an increased difficulty in acquiring qualified CDL drivers for the increased freight volumes.
As with other reports, the ACT Freight Rate Index showed substantial increase in May, climbing by 13.1 points to its highest level in its 17-year history. Again, capacity constraint is listed as the reason, with the report listing “broadening enforcement of new FMCSA regulations, aging boomer demographics, new MOTUS registration rules to clamp down on chameleon carriers and the recent SCOTUS decision increasing broker liability” as factors in the tightening freight market.
In fact, the Driver Availability Index component of the ACT release showed a sharp decline in recent months, pointing to nondomiciled CDL enforcement and FMCSA efforts to reduce registration fraud and close questionable CDL schools as factors for the five-year low in the Index reached in April.
The Cass Freight Index, which measures freight volumes and expenditures through invoices processed for its customer base, follows the trend of other reports with freight volumes remaining stagnant while rates continue to climb.
The Cass Index for shipments increased by 3.0% in May from April levels, but when adjusted for seasonal changes actually declined by 0.3%. Compared with May 2025, shipment numbers fell by 1.2%. At the same time, the Expenditures Index showed that Cass clients paid 5.3% more for shipping in May compared with April and 7.5% more than in May 2025.
The Cass Indexes, while primarily comprised of data from trucking, also include rail, air, ship, pipeline and other shipping modes. According to a report summary written by ACT’s Tim Denoyer, a volume recovery seems close.
“While it will not likely be overwhelming from a demand perspective at current fuel prices, inventories are tight, tariffs are falling, and the U.S. dollar is soft, supporting the freight demand outlook,” Denoyer wrote. “Tighter supply remains the main reason for accelerating rates.”
In its latest economic forecast, FTR Transportation Intelligence pointed out that “the latest economic data presents a transportation market with improving industrial momentum, resilient consumer spending and sharply lower energy costs.” The lowered energy costs occurred more recently than reflected in May numbers.
The FTR release cited U.S. Census Bureau reports that indicated a 1.3% increase in durable goods orders, products that are not quickly consumed in use. Also cited were increases in orders for primary metals (3.0%), machinery (1.9%) and fabricated metal products (1.5%).
On the downside, sales of new homes fell by 6.8% from last year’s level as the inventory of available housing reached 10.3 months and average 30-year mortgage rates edged upward. “For freight markets tied to construction materials, appliances, furniture and home improvement products, housing remains an area to watch closely,” the report concluded.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
