COLUMBUS, Ind., BEAVERTON, Ore. — ACT Research and FTR are reporting April preliminary North America Class 8 net orders are the lowest since May 2020.
According to ACT, 7,600 units declined m/m and y/y. FTR put the number at just 7,400.
“Between the end of the industry’s annual ‘order season’ and the uncertainty surrounding the impact of US economic policy that peaked at the start of the month on ‘Liberation Day,’ April delivered the weakest cumulative MD and HD order tally since the beginning of the pandemic when markets were comparably unsettled,” said Ken Vieth, president and senior analyst, ACT. “When released by ACT mid-month, NA Classes 5-8 net orders are expected at 19,200 units, the lowest volume since May 2020. Seasonality provides only modest lift in April.”
Regarding medium duty, Vieth said the order trend for MD Classes 5-7 vehicles continued to deflate.
“ACT’s preliminary look at April NA Classes 5-7 orders puts the month’s volume at 11,600 orders, down 41% from last April’s level. Seasonal adjustment provides only modest support,” Vieth said.
Sizable Drop
According to FTR, Class 8 net orders in April plunged 54% both month-over-month (m/m) and year-over-year (y/y) to just 7,400 units – the lowest order total since May 2020 when order activity cratered due to Covid shutdowns. Orders were far below the seven-year April average of 18,963 units.
Tariff Troubles
“New and pending U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs will significantly increase costs for Class 8 trucks, tractors, and related components. In addition to slowing economic and truck freight market growth, prolonged tariff-driven cost increases and, potentially, regulatory changes could further suppress near-term demand within the Class 8 segment,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, FTR. “This will very likely reduce industry volumes, complicate production planning, and negatively affect profitability and stability for OEMs and suppliers in the North American Class 8 truck market.”
According to FTR, the announcement of reciprocal U.S. tariffs in early April further intensified the challenges posed by tariffs that had already been announced. Tariffs and related concerns over the economy and the freight market have significantly dampened fleet investments in Class 8 trucks and tractors this year. Some fleets apparently are holding off on truck and tractor purchases until market conditions improve or at least stabilize. Net orders for 2025 through April are down 30% y/y while Class 8 retail sales are down 10% y/y through March. Cumulative net orders for the 2025 order season (September 2024 through April 2025) are down 11% y/y. Increasing levels of cancellations in response to growing uncertainty might have contributed to the unusually low order levels this month. Both the on-highway and vocational markets saw substantial declines m/m due to weakening demand fundamentals. Through April, orders for the last 12 months totaled 269,772 units.
“This challenging environment is further complicated by anticipated revisions to the U.S. EPA’s 2027 NOx regulations. Although orders may be approaching their seasonal/cyclical low point, it is unclear how long these depressed demand levels will persist,” Moyer said.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
