North American freight volumes as measured by the Cass Freight Index rose 3% m/m in May, coming in very close to seasonal expectations.
“The y/y gap in volumes has narrowed to -1.2%, the smallest gap in 18 months,” Cass said. “These are positive signs that a volume recovery in the second half of the year remains likely. While it may not be a consumer-led recovery, inventories are tight, tariffs are falling and the U.S. dollar is soft, all of which support demand growth. Truckload linehaul rates continued the upward movement that began in 2024, with a 0.4% m/m gain and 6.9% y/y increase. Rates are and will continue to be boosted by supply constraints caused by equipment and driver shortages.”
Cass Freight Index — Shipments
- The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 3.0% m/m in May, narrowing the y/y decline to 1.2%, the smallest in 18 months.
- In seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, shipments fell 0.3% m/m after three straight gains totaling 6.0%, keeping the chances of a 2H recovery elevated.
- Many spot indicators suggest improving freight demand, and certain sectors are executing well on growth, such as the domestic intermodal market.
- At the May SA rate, this index would rise 1.8% y/y in 2H’26 and turn positive y/y in July.
“The normal seasonal trend would put the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index down about 1% y/y in June,” Cass said.
Cass Freight Index — Expenditures
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 7.5% y/y in May, accelerating from a 3.5% gain in April.
The acceleration was mainly due to slower shipment declines, while rates rose slightly.
- In SA terms, the index rose 4.9% m/m in May, after a 1.2% m/m increase in March.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index declined by 0.5%.
Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose to 150.8 in May, up 0.4% m/m and 6.9% y/y.
- These linehaul rates exclude both fuel and accessorial charges, both of which are rising. In the refrigerated market in particular, accessorial charges are going up, perhaps for reefer unit fuel.
- Volumes are beginning to recover, but it is mainly supply constraints supporting higher rates, in our view, both for equipment capacity and drivers.
- TL rates are likely to continue their upward march in the coming months.
- This index reflects the whole for-hire market, both spot and contract rates.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025.
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
