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‘Perfect storm’ of positive factors results in upward revisions for commercial vehicle forecast

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‘Perfect storm’ of positive factors results in upward revisions for commercial vehicle forecast
ACT Research shows market forecasts trending up this month, according to the latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook report. (Courtesy: Peterbilt)

COLUMBUS, Ind. — According to ACT Research’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, forecasts for 2020 were marked up across the board in August. The report cites the uptick as a result of a robust “perfect storm” of positives in late spring and summer. Many of these “positives” were set in motion by the federal government’s and the Federal Reserve’s massive stimulus responses, as well as by the trucking industry’s jettisoning of drivers in April.

“On top of the continued steady roll out of good economic numbers, the sustained rally in spot rates was a key factor in this month’s forecast markup,” said ACT President and Senior Analyst Kenny Vieth, pointing to the U.S. transportation industry.

“That said, parked capacity is likely to weigh on the market as those units are redeployed throughout 2021,” he noted.

ACT’s North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook report forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next one to five years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for the future. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, and takes a deep dive into relevant, current market activity to highlight orders, production and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast. Information included in the report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors; trailers; the macroeconomies of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico; publicly traded carrier information; oil and fuel price impacts; freight and intermodal considerations; and regulatory environment impacts.

Regarding NA commercial vehicle demand, Vieth commented, “Another factor in the 2020 forecast mark-up is not just the revival in order strength, but the very front-end-loaded nature of June’s orders and very strong near-term backlog filling,” Vieth said regarding commercial vehicle demand in North America. “Even in the face of significant parked capacity, a case can be made for a steady, if modest, Class 8 market rebound from here.”

Based on continued increases in build in the face of already high inventories, Vieth said, “Classes 5-7 OEMs appear to be betting on business and consumers’ resilience.”

The Trucker News Staff

The Trucker News Staff produces engaging content for not only TheTrucker.com, but also The Trucker Newspaper, which has been serving the trucking industry for more than 30 years. With a focus on drivers, the Trucker News Staff aims to provide relevant, objective content pertaining to the trucking segment of the transportation industry. The Trucker News Staff is based in Little Rock, Arkansas.

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The Trucker News Staff produces engaging content for not only TheTrucker.com, but also The Trucker Newspaper, which has been serving the trucking industry for more than 30 years. With a focus on drivers, the Trucker News Staff aims to provide relevant, objective content pertaining to the trucking segment of the transportation industry. The Trucker News Staff is based in Little Rock, Arkansas.
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