Choosing the “right” time to apply for a new driving job is most often a matter of current conditions, both in the trucking industry as a whole and in a driver’s life.
Many drivers tend to apply for a job change when something is bothering them at their present carrier. Maybe miles are down, or the truck keeps breaking down, or there’s a conflict or issue with a dispatcher or manager. Sometimes the issue is at home, and the driver may need more home time, higher pay or better benefits.
Know the market
A proactive approach to finding new employment leans towards the market for drivers, as well as industry trends. Such an approach to employment may suggest that a good time to look for a new job is now.
Currently, economic conditions — such as new truck sales, rate bumps and recent actions taken by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s (USDOT) Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) — indicate there will be a demand for qualified drivers. That demand has been subdued for more than a year.
When carriers need drivers, good things happen. Wages tend to rise, and carriers tend to relax certain requirements — at least requirements that have no direct correlation to safety or the driver’s legal right to operate within the U.S.
Law of supply and demand
Trucking, like any business, is subject to the law of supply and demand. In trucking, the “supply” is the number of trucks available to haul freight. This is usually referred to as “capacity.” When freight rates are high, more carriers buy more trucks so they can profit during the good times.
One irony of trucking, however, is that buying more trucks increases the supply (capacity), which tends to lower freight rates. If you’ve concluded that the trucking industry sometimes harms itself by buying too many trucks … well, you’re right! It’s an endless cycle of boom and bust.
On the other side of the equation, “demand” is the amount of freight that needs hauling. Demand usually marches on at a methodical pace and is relatively easy to plan for. However, if there’s a major global event — such as war or a pandemic, or imposition of tariffs —things can change quickly.
The COVID-19 shutdowns of the early 2020s are a perfect example. As the world learned of the pandemic and COVID spread around the globe, businesses began to shut down. In response, trucking laid off or furloughed drivers. The government tried to help with stimulus checks and by supplementing unemployment benefits and greatly extending the benefit periods.
The result was more freight and fewer drivers to haul it, rocketing freight rates to record levels. Carriers expanded capacity by buying up every available truck and ordering more. Manufacturers couldn’t build trucks fast enough, and wait times for new orders exceeded a year. Drivers eventually returned to work, stimulus dollars ran out, rates plummeted and trucking experienced one of its longest freight recessions ever.
There are signs that change for the better is coming.
Slowing capacity and new regulations
On the capacity front, manufacturing of new trucks has slowed. Carriers aren’t buying enough trucks to replace their fleets as they wear out. A number of large carriers have closed their doors, unable to survive in tight economic conditions. Smaller carriers, which make up the majority of the industry, have also been closing.
English Language Proficiency
Trucks are of no use without drivers, and recent FMCSA actions have sent driver numbers downward. The crackdown on drivers who are unable to pass English Language Proficiency (ELP) tests is expected to remove 20,000 drivers from the fleet. Those who fail ELP testing are placed out of service and others who feel they may not pass are finding jobs in other industries.
Non-domiciled CDL drivers
In another move that is expected to remove more than 190,000 drivers from the road, the FMCSA is tightening the rules for issuing CDLs to non-domiciled drivers with an emergency ruling.
While this action isn’t the ban that some claim it is, it DOES prohibit illegal immigrants from receiving CDLs. It also mandates that legal immigrants have CDLs with the same expiration date as their visas. The action includes a provision that non-domiciled CDL holders must renew their license annually — and they must do so in person, showing their documents authorizing them to be in the U.S. Further, non-citizens applying for a CDL or learner’s permit must be sponsored by an employer and immigration status checks will be conducted.
While the number of non-domiciled drivers is shrinking, carriers who employ them are going out of business or at least changing their operations to reduce the likelihood of drivers being placed out of service. Some are switching operations to Intrastate only or simply avoiding states where enforcement activity is strongest. The impact is already showing up in higher spot rates in some areas. When carriers close, their customers and freight lanes become available to other carriers.
The tariff factor
Tariffs, a favored international relations tool of the Trump administration, also impact freight volumes and rates.
In the short term, new or increased tariffs can curtail imports. Fewer imports means fewer truckloads of freight to manufacturers or retailer warehouses, helping to suppress freight rates.
In the long term, however, tariffs encourage domestic manufacturing, both from current U.S. manufacturers expanding operations and from foreign entities that build or expand operations in the U.S.
A recent example is an agreement from Japan to invest $1 trillion in the U.S. economy, including opening of two additional plants to build Toyota vehicles. Other countries that have committed to U.S. investment include the United Arab Emirates ($1.4 trillion), Qatar ($1.2 trillion) and Saudi Arabia ($600 million).
Companies such as Apple, NVDIA and Hyundai have announced investments of billions of dollars in the U.S. A list is available here.
Fed cuts interest rate again
Also expected to impact the trucking industry, on October 29, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percent to its current range of 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the second interest rate cut this year, and another is expected before year end. Rate cuts are enacted to stimulate economic activity by lowering the cost of credit.
While there’s no foolproof way to predict which way the trucking industry is headed, signs like lowered capacity, reduced numbers of available drivers, increased manufacturing output and lowered interest rates all point to better days ahead.
Looking for a new driving job? The Trucker can help!
If you’re considering a job change, the next few months could be your window of opportunity.
The Trucker Media Group offers a great resource for both job seekers and employers. Check out opportunities on The Trucker Jobs website.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
