COLUMBUS, Ind. — ACT Research is expecting tariffs to extend the for-hire freight recession into 2026, following a temporary Q3 surge.
“We think international trade is a major question, particularly for trucking, driving 16%-25% of US surface freight volume,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president, senior analyst, ACT. “With a historic backlog on the Supreme Court’s emergency docket, but no appeal of the stay at this point, it’s not likely to be decided before the court takes a few months off soon. But if the eventual appeal is successful, it could reduce US import tariffs from around 20% currently to a high single digit percentage. At least significantly delaying these tariffs by sending the issue to Congress would improve the outlook for goods demand.
Much depends on developments in the trade war in the coming months, as discussed in the latest release of ACT’s Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“The ‘major questions doctrine’ is a legal argument the Supreme Court used to limit Biden’s authority on student loans and climate, ruling that federal agencies can’t make sweeping changes without clear congressional authorization,” Denoyer said. “It was also cited by the US Court of International Trade when it ruled the IEEPA reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs unlawful in late May. These tariffs continue as the ruling is stayed. By contrast, the Section 232 tariffs on steel & aluminum, currently 50%, are on firmer legal ground, which is affecting equipment supply. Both have significant implications for freight markets.”
Dana Guthrie is an award-winning journalist who has been featured in multiple newspapers, books and magazines across the globe. She is currently based in the Atlanta, Georgia, area.
