The month of March is usually a strong one for U.S. sales of new Class 8 trucks, and it often sets the tone for the upcoming summer. Because the month closes the year’s first quarter, carriers often adjust purchase investments to impact quarterly results and set up their fleets for the next quarter.
True to form in 2025, U.S sales of new Class 8 trucks rose significantly in March — up by 18.8% from February sales figures. According to data received from Wards Intelligence, manufacturers reported sales of 18,682 in March.
While that number represents a decline of 5% from March 2024 sales, it was still stronger than expected in light of announced tariffs and continued depressed freight rates.
Layoffs at OEMs
Earlier this month, Volvo Group North America announced a series of layoffs at several assembly locations impacting both the Mack and Volvo nameplates. Citing market uncertainty due to tariffs, softening vehicle demand and the potential for regulatory changes for its decision.
A month earlier, Daimler announced workforce reductions at its manufacturing facilities, while Kenworth announced staff reductions late last year.
Sales lagging year to date
For the year to date, the industry has reported sales that are 9.5% behind last year’s pace. It’s interesting, however, that the decline from last year’s sales has gotten smaller each month of 2025.
New orders for Class 8 trucks totaled 16,500, according to ACT Research‘s State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report. That total is for North America, not just the U.S. Carriers are also cancelling existing orders at a higher rate.
“While uncertainty and a weak seasonal period have made parsing the tea leaves more challenging, cancellations as a 20-month high may indicate customers are pulling back on orders given the increasingly pessimistic outlook,” said Carter Vieth, a research analyst for ACT.
Factors impacting truck orders
- Vocational Truck Orders
One factor in ACT’s truck order numbers that looms large is a 21% decline in orders for vocational trucks.
While orders for trucks with dump, concrete and other vocational body styles have been on the increase, the ordering was attributed to cash made available by the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and other spending legislation under the Biden administration.
With Trump administration cuts to government spending as well as increased recessionary risk, truck buyers may be increasingly cautious.
- Threat of tariffs
Another huge factor in truck pricing is the threat of tariffs by President Trump. Threats of 25% tariffs on products imported from Canada and Mexico shook the market, as foreign-owned U.S. manufacturers not only deal with parts suppliers in other countries, but have physical assembly locations there, too.
While Trump announced temporary suspension of the tariffs with North American trading partners, not so with China, who announced retaliatory tariffs and has been engaged in a war of words with Trump. Parts for some new truck models as well as repair and replacement parts are imported from China.
March results may be an indication that carriers are buying more trucks to get ahead of future price increases caused by tariffs while, at the same time, putting in fewer orders — or cancelling current ones — for equipment to be delivered at a future date, possibly after price increases due to tariffs taking effect.
Trailer orders strong
In the meantime, orders for new trailers have been surprisingly strong, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence.
The firm reported March net orders of 21,516 units for March, an increase of 3% over February and a whopping 70% higher than March 2024. According to FTR, March was the fifth straight month in which orders exceeded 20,000.
“Some fleets appear to be prioritizing adding trailers in lieu of power units,” said Dan Moyer, senior commercial vehicle analyst for FTR. “Given the increasing level of uncertainty — the economy, tariffs, truck freight demand and pricing, etc. — it remains to be seen if this order strength can be sustained.”
Used truck prices on the rise
Another way carriers are spending money on equipment other than new trucks is in the used truck market.
In March, the average price for a used tractor rose 5.6% from February, the largest percentage increase since March 2022, according to ACT Research. That average, however, is still 6% lower than it was a year ago in March 2024. The average used truck is also a little older with a few more miles on the odometer.
“Besides the usual factors that influence used truck prices, such as mileage, age and condition, a number of other considerations are likely affecting recent pricing changes,” said Steve Tam, ACT vice president.
Tam explained that slowing sales of new trucks are reducing the number of trade-in trucks available on the used market, driving pricing for available trucks higher. Additionally, some buyers may be avoiding the new truck market to shop used, increasing demand for late-model trucks.
Because used trucks aren’t subject to new tariffs, they may be an attractive option to buyers.
Interest in the used truck market is unusual at this point in the freight cycle. When freight rates are high, more truckers buy trucks to start their own businesses. Current rates, however, aren’t enticing driver-employees to forgo their jobs and strike out on their own, especially with the specter of economic uncertainty looming.
Possibility of global recession
An April report from private equity firm Apollo Global Management predicts a global recession — one they call “The Voluntary Trade Reset Recession” — for summer of this year.
The report explains that Trump tariffs on China, announced April 2, will result in a reduction — if not an outright stop — of container ships arriving from that country at U.S. ports.
Without these products entering the truck shipment cycle, Apollo predicts trucking demand will decline sharply, resulting in trucking and retail industry layoffs by early June and a full-fledged recession soon after.
Of course, it’s possible the U.S. and China will come to a trade agreement before a recession, but it would still take weeks to resume container deliveries to the U.S.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
