ATRI releases update to its Crash Predictor Model

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ARLINGTON, Va. — The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) Tuesday released the update to its Crash Predictor Model that statistically quantifies the likelihood of future crash involvement based on specific truck driving behaviors (e.g. prior crashes, violations and convictions).

ATRI’s analysis draws on data from over 435,000 U.S. truck drivers over a two-year time frame to expose nearly a dozen behaviors that raise a driver’s risk of being involved in a future truck crash by more than 50 percent.

“ATRI’s Crash Predictor Model is a key input to our driver hiring and training practices,” said John M. Prewitt, president of Tideport Distributing. “Safety is our first concern and by understanding how driver histories relate to future crash probability, we can develop targeted solutions for minimizing safety risks.”

Now in its third release, this latest ATRI crash predictor model includes analyses on the impact of age and gender on crash probability.  And to better understand the bottom line impacts of preventing crashes, this latest report includes industry average crash costs across six distinct crash types and severity.

Among the key findings from the Crash Predictor Model Update are:

  • The top two behaviors for predicting future crash involvement, each with more than 100 pecent increased likelihood of a future crash, are a reckless driving violation and a failure to yield right of way violation.
  • Prior crash involvement continues to have a statistically significant relationship to future crash involvement with a 74 percent increase of the likelihood of being in a future crash.
  • Women truck drivers were safer than male counterparts in every statistically significant safety behavior and men were 20 percent more likely to be involved in a crash than women.
  • Several stable behaviors have emerged across all three ATRI Crash Predictor Models (2005, 2011 and 2018) as statistically significant predictors of future crash involvement including convictions for improper lane/location, reckless/careless/inattentive/negligent driving and improper or erratic lane change.

Understanding that traffic enforcement, particularly those activities that target the crash predictor behaviors, is an effective tool for mitigating crashes, ATRI also provides a list of “top tier” states which emphasizes those states that have proven track records of maximizing their enforcement resources while minimizing their share of the nation’s truck crashes.  Indiana tops that list, followed by New Mexico, Washington, California and Maryland.

A copy of this report is available from ATRI at www.TruckingResearch.org.

ATRI is the trucking industry’s 501(c)(3) not-for-profit research organization. It is engaged in critical research relating to freight transportation’s essential role in maintaining a safe, secure and efficient transportation system.

 

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