It’s the time of year when freight demand slows, and high fuel prices aren’t helping. That’s the consensus among trucking industry analysts.
Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence reported that broker-posted spot rates fell each week through July, with the decline continuing into August. Truckstop also reported that load availability declined in July, in keeping with normal seasonality.
DAT Freight and Analytics reported stagnating spot freight rates through July, with further decline into August:
- The national average rate for dry van spot shipments reached $3 per mile in June and remained there through July — but has since dropped by a dime per mile.
- In the flatbed segment, July’s average spot rates fell to $3.64 per mile from June’s $3.70.
- The refrigerated segment gained a penny per mile, rising to $3.41 in July; but it has since fallen.
DAT reported that spot load posts declined by 20% in July from June levels, in keeping with seasonal trends.
The good news, however, is that load postings were 29.7% higher than in July 2025, so even in a seasonal lull the market is in much better shape than it was a year ago.
The fuel factor
Diesel fuel prices were beginning to moderate as June rolled into July and a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran appeared in the works. That agreement — and the lower fuel prices — evaporated quickly as hostilities escalated.
Across July, diesel fuel averaged $5 per gallon nationally, topping $6 on the West Coast, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Toward the end of August, West Coast prices topped $7 per gallon.
In its mid-August Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA predicted crude oil production and shipping to remain constrained through the rest of 2026, returning to near pre-conflict averages in early 2027. The agency blamed shipment interruption through the Strait of Hormuz for curtailing the buildup of global crude inventories necessary to bring prices down.
ATA tonnage tumbles
Tonnage reported by members of the American Trucking Associations (ATA) declined 1% in July following a 1.5% June increase.
“Tonnage levels have been choppy recently, and this trend was reflected in July’s decline,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Aside from a couple pockets of strength, including the boom in data center construction for AI, freight has been lackluster. It is also true that the industry is seeing a recovery, but that is nearly all due to excess capacity leaving the market.”
ATA membership leans to large and mid-sized carriers hauling mostly contract freight, so the ATA report offers a comparison to what’s happening in the spot market.
Segments of the economy that could impact freight levels, such as manufacturing and housing, remain subdued.
Rate improvements have come from a reduction in capacity fueled by fewer truck purchases as well as a reduced pool of available drivers, driven by FMCSA crackdowns on non-domiciled CDL drivers, non-English-speaking drivers, CDL school requirements and other actions.
LTL and intermodal segments see improvement
A release from ACT Research, “Supply-Driven Tightness Moderates as Freight Cycle Enters Seasonal Lull,” mentioned load increases in both the less-than-truckload (LTL) and intermodal segments, indicating that shippers are considering alternative shipping modes as capacity continues to tighten.
“The pendulum has swung back to fleets in this early-cycle, supply-driven environment,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT. “Tight driver availability and persistent regulatory constraints are keeping capacity tight.”
Recent pay increases, combined with softer demand from freight markets, are helping make it easier for carriers to staff trucks — for now, he noted.
“We expect the market to remain sensitive to seasonal shifts, with rates likely to firm again as we approach year-end,” he said.
Continuing cycle
The “early cycle” referred to by Denoyer comes from ACT’s “Classic Truckload Cycle” graphic that details how trucking capacity relates to freight rates and volumes. As ACT President Ken Vieth regularly says, “When truckers are making money, they buy trucks.”
The “cycle” begins when freight rates rise, prompting more buyers to add trucks in order to take advantage. At some point, there are too many trucks available for the amount of freight, an overcapacity situation, resulting in falling rates. The market loses trucks as carriers close, and the cycle starts anew.
Cass Index reflects declines
The Cass Freight Index, also written by ACT’s Denoyer, showed a 2.6% decline in freight volumes reported by its clients in July compared with June data. Compared to July 2025, this year’s decline was 4.8%. The report noted that normal seasonality would expect shipment numbers to fall another 3% in August.
The Cass Index for Expenditures also fell from June, dropping 3.4% in July, However, it was 9.1% higher than July 2025, reflecting the improvement in freight rates.
Fuel efficiency
MVT Solutions, a partnership between Mesilla Valley Transportation and InnoMetric MPG, has published fuel economy testing results since its incorporation in 2016.
With diesel fuel prices remaining high, the group recently released its “Fuel Economy Tip of the Month,” highlighting the results of MVT’s tests of two configurations of Transtex, LLC aerodynamic solutions. That company markets the EDGE TopKit+, a fairing/spoiler combination for the rear of van-style trailers, as well as the EDGE Elite Aero System which includes the rear treatments along with trailer skirts and flow-through mud flaps.
MVT Solutions testing showed the TopKit+ alone resulted in fuel economy improvement of 4.4%, while the Elite Aero System achieved fuel savings of 10.5%. Both tests assumed 125,000 miles traveled annually at 65 mph and at 45,000 lbs.
This and other aerodynamic testing by MVT solutions have clearly demonstrated that aero treatments are effective for reducing fuel consumption.
The Elite Aero solution, for example, would save over 1,500 gallons of fuel per year. At current diesel pricing, that’s a savings of $7,500 annually. Truckers looking to maximize revenue opportunities will find it beneficial to invest in fuel-saving technology in order to hand on to more of the revenues they earn.
Fall 2026 outlook
September is upon us, and trucking can anticipate a bump in rates through the Labor Day holiday. That boost will be followed by trucking’s peak season in October and November. Retailers will soon begin growing inventories for the holiday season, and fall crops will need to be hauled.
This year, mid-term election results in early November could also impact rates. Keep an eye on TheTrucker.com for the latest updates. To review the wrapup for June 2026 click here.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
