Tariffs dominated the topics discussed in the “State of Freight: Key Issues in Transportation” webinar hosted in July by FTR Transportation Intelligence. Jonathan Starks, CEO at FTR, spoke about the large number of webinar attendees and why they had tuned in.
“I think it’s because we’ve gone through such a chaotic environment going through the first half of this year,” he said. “It’s really beneficial to understand where we are and how to prepare for what’s coming up and what those changes might look like.”
No one can say with certainty what’s coming up for the economy in general — or for the trucking industry specifically — but analysts like Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR, and Joseph Towers, the company’s senior analyst for rail and intermodal, can help interpret some of the information available to industry decision makers.
TARIFFS & INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Towers began by discussing international trade, which has been heavily influenced by tariffs — and threats of additional tariffs — from the Trump administration.
At the end of 2024, he said, all tariffs taken together were equal to about 2% of the value of imported goods. By April, the estimated tariff rate had climbed to more than 31%. That figure included announced tariffs of 50% on imported steel and aluminum and a whopping 145% tariff on Chinese products. At the time of this writing, new tariffs and changes to existing tariffs are being announced on nearly a daily basis.
According to analysts, President Donald Trump has successfully used the media as a tool to bring about action by other countries that he feels have imposed unfair tariffs on U.S. goods being exported to their countries.
The results have been mixed, with some countries reducing their tariffs and promising to open their markets to more U.S. products. Others have entered trade deals with the U.S. Trump has, on occasion, reduced the threatened tariffs or delayed their implementation, using them as “carrot on a stick” to encourage action on the part of other countries.
Estimated total tariffs have fluctuated from a 31% high in April, dropping as low as nearly 4% before rising again to more than 15%. But the uncertainty around the tariffs may be causing more turmoil in the economy than the tariffs themselves.
“It isn’t a very clear environment on that import levels are going to look like for the next one to five years, which makes it difficult for businesses to make decisions,” Towers explained. “Do I buy a new piece of equipment? Do I launch a new product? Do I change the way I source my product? Those are all still very much moving questions that still cast a shadow on the trade environment.”
Imports rose in February and March as importers brought in products before new tariffs could take effect. Then, in April and May imports fell substantially, particularly products from China. In those two months, Chinese export volume to the U.S. fell by more than 1.4 million tons. China, however, has been known to ship products to other Asian countries such as Vietnam, relabeling them so they appear to have originated in that country and thereby skirting U.S. tariffs.
Also in April and May, imports from Vietnam, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and India increased by nearly enough to completely offset the drop in shipments from China.
Where these shipments arrive in the U.S. is changing, too. Dockings at ports on the East and Gulf coasts have been increasing and West coast deliveries are declining. The ports at which shipments are unloaded can make a huge difference in how much of the cargo ends up being hauled to destination by truck rather than by rail or other transportation modes.
THE GDP FACTOR
Vise pointed out that import values are subtracted from the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), since they aren’t produced in the U.S.
“That is almost completely why we had a negative outcome for GDP in the first quarter,” he said. Second quarter data has not been released as yet. “For the year as a whole, we expect relatively solid growth of 1.8% as well as for next year and that is down from the 2.5% to 2.8% in the last few years. But it is still solid growth.”
The problem, Vise explained, is that imported freight still moves by truck. The trucking industry benefitted from the increased imports in the first quarter, but with pre-tariff products stockpiled, the result will be less to haul in subsequent quarters.
“We do expect a considerably weaker outcome for the second quarter and then further weakness in the third quarter,” he said.
‘SOFT’ CONSUMER SPENDING
Vise also noted that economic issues like inflation and high interest rates — which existed prior to current tariff issues — are still around. In addition, he said, health care costs are also rapidly increasing; this could quickly siphon money from the economy that consumers would normally spend on tangible products hauled by truck.
In fact, consumer spending is expected to be soft for the remainder of this year, at the least, according to Vise.
“We are still expecting to see consumer growth in inflation-adjusted terms, but considerably softer than what we were looking at,” he said. “So, you add tariffs onto that and the potential increases in prices — and it DOES seem that we are looking at a considerably weaker consumer environment.”
Spot freight rates for dry van and refrigerated trailers have generally followed the pace set in the past two years, occasionally rising slightly higher than corresponding weeks in 2024, but never reaching the five-year average rate. Flatbed spot rates have mostly outperformed rates in the past two years, but they haven’t risen enough to offset additional operating costs due to inflation.
If rates are to increase, it won’t be due to the economy surging and creating more freight to haul. Instead, the market will depend on how fast capacity depletes from the United States’ trucking fleet. Carrier revocations of authority are still running at high levels, but new carrier registrations created a small gain in the first quarter. Most of the new carriers are very small, but each one competes on the freight market.
In short, the news for the trucking industry is to expect conditions to improve very slowly — if they improve at all.
This story originally appeared in the September/October 2025 edition of Truckload Authority, the official publication of the Truckload Carriers Association.
Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.
